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IEA Revises 2026 Oil Demand Forecast Due to Closure of Hormuz Strait

The IEA has adjusted its 2026 oil demand forecast downward amid ongoing disruptions in the Hormuz Strait, projecting a significant slump in demand.

12 August 2026Tagblick Newsdesk

Updated: 12 Aug 2026, 22:05AI-generatedWritten by an AI system, editorially responsible — how we work

Archive photo: IEA Revises 2026 Oil Demand Forecast Due to Closure of Hormuz Strait — Archive photoPhoto: The International Energy Agency · Wikimedia Commons · CC BY 4.0

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has once again lowered its oil demand forecast for 2026, citing the ongoing closure of the Hormuz Strait. According to reports, the agency now expects demand to decrease by 1.6 million barrels per day, a larger cut compared to a previous estimate of one million barrels in July.

The situation in the Hormuz Strait is increasingly impacting global oil supply, exacerbated by a failure to achieve a ceasefire between Iran and the United States. Current production levels from the Gulf region remain approximately 8.3 million barrels per day below pre-conflict levels, affecting overall supply.

The IEA has indicated that the market is now facing an unprecedented deficit in the third quarter of the year. This shortfall is contributing to the declining inventory levels and increasing pressure on global oil markets.

The adjustments made by the IEA highlight the ongoing challenges in predicting oil supply and demand in light of geopolitical tensions and operational disruptions. This situation continues to evolve as stakeholders monitor developments in the region.

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