World

Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied in presidential race, according to Datafolha

Poll shows Lula at 39% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 36% in the first round, both tied in the second round.

18 September 2026Tagblick Newsdesk

AI-generatedWritten by an AI system, editorially responsible — how we work

Archive photo: Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied in presidential race, according to Datafolha — Archive photoPhoto: Aloizio Mercadante · Flickr · BY-SA

The latest survey by Datafolha, released on September 17, reveals that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) has 39% of voting intentions, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) registers 36%. The analysis was commissioned by Globo and the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo, showing stability compared to the previous poll conducted on September 11.

In the second-round scenario, Lula appears with 46% against 44% for Flávio Bolsonaro, indicating a technical tie within the margin of error. Additionally, both candidates face a high rejection rate, with 47% of voters declaring they would never vote for them, according to Datafolha.

The poll also highlighted that among beneficiaries of the Bolsa Família program, Lula has 53% support, while Flávio Bolsonaro receives 28%. Among voters who do not receive the benefit, Flávio Bolsonaro leads with 37%, while Lula has 36%. In the second round, among program beneficiaries, Lula reaches 60% of voting intentions, compared to 33% for Flávio Bolsonaro.

In a shift in campaign strategy, Lula decided to directly confront Flávio Bolsonaro, aiming to keep the crisis involving the Federal Supreme Court (STF) out of the electoral focus. The president's campaign intends to highlight ongoing investigations that could harm Flávio Bolsonaro.

In addition to voting intentions, the survey identified that Lula has a significant advantage among young voters, receiving 39% support among those aged 16 to 24, in comparison to 29% for Flávio Bolsonaro, although this situation is also considered a technical tie due to the poll's margin of error.

For his part, Flávio Bolsonaro criticized Lula's government over the recent 15.04% adjustment in the Bolsa Família, describing the action as a desperate move.

This item was written by an AI system on the basis of the headlines and short teasers of the independently operating newsrooms named below. We disclose this under Art. 50(4), second subparagraph, of Regulation (EU) 2024/1689 (AI Act). Before publication we check origin and verifiability — anything that appears in only one place is not published — as well as language, substance and legally sensitive content. No separate substantive review of each individual item by a natural person takes place; we therefore do not rely on the exemption in Art. 50(4), second subparagraph, of the AI Act. Editorial responsibility for this publication rests with the person named in the imprint (§ 18 Abs. 2 MStV). Please report errors to [email protected] — we will correct or remove the item. Full reports are available from the sources listed.