World

BTG/Nexus and Palver surveys show technical tie between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro

Studies reveal Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in a technical tie for the 2026 presidential election scenarios.

22 September 2026Tagblick Newsdesk

AI-generatedWritten by an AI system, editorially responsible — how we work

Archive photo: BTG/Nexus and Palver surveys show technical tie between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro — Archive photoPhoto: FranciscoNetoFdeO · Wikimedia Commons · CC BY 4.0

According to a BTG/Nexus survey released on Monday (21), President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) are in a technical tie for both the first and second rounds of the 2026 presidential election. The data shows that the difference in voting intentions between the candidates is very narrow, indicating a tight competition between the two.

On the other hand, a survey by Palver, also published today, reveals Flávio Bolsonaro with 42% of voting intentions in the first round, slightly ahead of Lula, who is at 41%. This difference, although numerical, is considered part of the technical tie due to the survey's margin of error.

Additionally, another survey released by the Quaest institute indicates that in the first round, Lula (PT) would receive 37% of the votes, while Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) would have 33%, with Lula numerically ahead but also within the technical tie, as the margin of error of the surveys can influence the interpretation of the results.

In regards to the second round, the surveys present a similar scenario, with some showing Flávio Bolsonaro with a slight advantage while others suggest a tie. Quaest, for example, reports that Flávio has 42% and Lula 41% in a potential direct confrontation in the second round, reiterating the closeness between the candidates.

These scenarios of a technical tie across multiple surveys indicate a divided electorate regarding the two main candidates in the election, reflecting the importance of floating votes that could decide the presidential race.

Amidst this intense competition, there is a growing public interest in the electoral dynamics, as different demographic groups are being analyzed along with preferences across various segments of the population, which may influence the candidates' trajectories in the coming weeks.

This item was written by an AI system on the basis of the headlines and short teasers of the independently operating newsrooms named below. We disclose this under Art. 50(4), second subparagraph, of Regulation (EU) 2024/1689 (AI Act). Before publication we check origin and verifiability — anything that appears in only one place is not published — as well as language, substance and legally sensitive content. No separate substantive review of each individual item by a natural person takes place; we therefore do not rely on the exemption in Art. 50(4), second subparagraph, of the AI Act. Editorial responsibility for this publication rests with the person named in the imprint (§ 18 Abs. 2 MStV). Please report errors to [email protected] — we will correct or remove the item. Full reports are available from the sources listed.