World

Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro Tied in Polls for First Round

Polls indicate a technical tie between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in voter intentions for the first and second rounds of the 2026 presidential elections.

29 September 2026Tagblick Newsdesk

AI-generatedWritten by an AI system, editorially responsible — how we work

Archive photo: Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro Tied in Polls for First Round — Archive photoPhoto: Ricardo Stuckert/PR · Wikimedia Commons · CC BY 2.0

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) show varying results in the latest polls regarding voter intentions for the first and second rounds of the 2026 presidential elections. According to the BTG/Nexus poll, Lula has 42% and Flávio 37% in first-round voting intentions, while in the second round, Lula maintains 46% against Flávio's 44%. However, the difference is within the margin of error of two percentage points, indicating a technical tie. This poll was released on Monday, the 28th.

In another poll conducted by the Quaest institute, the numbers for the first round are similar, with Lula registering 39% and Flávio at 34%. This poll was also released on the same day and is significant for the current election scenario. The margin of error for this poll is also two percentage points, reinforcing the technical tie in voting intentions.

The tight competition between the two candidates is accompanied by other campaign dynamics. Flávio Bolsonaro, as reported, has seen a slight decrease in voting intentions compared to the previous poll, while Lula has managed to maintain his position. Additionally, various rallies and campaign activities are taking place in the states of São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, and Minas Gerais, which together hold a significant portion of Brazil's electorate.

Meanwhile, another poll from RealTime Big Data indicates that Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and ACM Neto (União) are technically tied in voting intentions for state governments in both the first and second rounds in Bahia. This data reflects the fragmentation of electoral preferences at various levels of government.

In addition to the voting intention surveys, the candidates' campaigns are also intensifying efforts to attract undecided voters as the election dates approach. Lula, for example, plans to hold rallies in key regions like the Northeast and São Paulo in the final stretch of the campaign.

The presidential elections of 2026 are scheduled for next Sunday, October 4, and the current polling landscape suggests a highly competitive scenario where candidates are in constant motion to secure voter support. The FTG/Nexus and Quaest polls reflect the significant importance of the popular vote, which will define the next steps in Brazilian politics.

This item was written by an AI system on the basis of the headlines and short teasers of the independently operating newsrooms named below. We disclose this under Art. 50(4), second subparagraph, of Regulation (EU) 2024/1689 (AI Act). Before publication we check origin and verifiability — anything that appears in only one place is not published — as well as language, substance and legally sensitive content. No separate substantive review of each individual item by a natural person takes place; we therefore do not rely on the exemption in Art. 50(4), second subparagraph, of the AI Act. Editorial responsibility for this publication rests with the person named in the imprint (§ 18 Abs. 2 MStV). Please report errors to [email protected] — we will correct or remove the item. Full reports are available from the sources listed.