Israel's inconclusive election leaves Netanyahu and Eisenkot both claiming victory

Israel held its first parliamentary election since the October 7, 2023 attacks that sparked the war in Gaza. Voters turned out in their highest numbers in decades for what was described as a make-or-break election to decide whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would remain in office or be replaced by opposition leader Eisenkot. Exit polls indicated a deadlocked result, with both Netanyahu's bloc of right-wing, far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties and Eisenkot's camp claiming victory despite preliminary indications neither would secure an outright majority.

According to partial results with nearly 86 per cent of votes tallied by Wednesday, Netanyahu's bloc was projected to win 53 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, compared to 48 for the opposition. Netanyahu appeared set to remain as caretaker prime minister despite his bloc losing its parliamentary majority. JPMorgan had forecast the shekel could fluctuate by as much as 3 per cent depending on the final election result, reflecting market sensitivity to the outcome.

Opposition leaders insisted the result represented a defeat for the government, even as exit poll figures appeared narrower than some pre-election forecasts. Eisenkot, who leads the Yashar party, emerged as the central opposition figure against Netanyahu. Both camps faced an uncertain path to forming a new coalition government as the final outcome remained unclear.

Some Israeli settlers expressed desires for leadership beyond Netanyahu. In Kiryat Arba, voters leaning toward far-right candidate Itamar Ben Gvir felt Netanyahu had not pursued sufficiently strong policies. Netanyahu's Likud party accused Arab parties of having stolen the election after partial results showed they could play a kingmaking role in forming a new government.

As ballots were counted, Israeli voters expressed mixed emotions. Some in Tel Aviv reported hope while others expressed despair about the electoral outcome and Israel's political direction. Netanyahu and other right-wing figures made provocative statements targeting Arab voters as the two rival political camps faced their uncertain path to power.

The inconclusive result left both Netanyahu and Eisenkot staking competing claims to lead Israel, with neither camp appearing to have a clear route to securing the parliamentary majority required to form a governing coalition. Formation of a new government remained challenging and uncertain as final vote counts continued.