Quaest survey reveals voting intentions for 2026

The Quaest survey, released on October 2, presents the voting intentions for the first round of the 2026 presidential elections. Lula from the PT leads with 37%, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro from the PL with 29%. Writer Augusto Cury from Avante appears with 10%, while Renan Santos from Missão has 3%. Ronaldo Caiado from PSD and Romeu Zema from Novo each obtained 1%. Other candidates, like Samara Martins from UP, also registered 1%, and Rui Costa Pimenta from PCO received no votes in the sample.

In the simulation for the second round, the same survey shows a tight scenario between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro. Lula would have 42% of the voting intentions, while Flávio Bolsonaro appears with 41%. There is also the possibility that 13% of the respondents indicated they would vote blank, null, or not vote at all.

The survey also addressed voters' perceptions regarding two ongoing investigations that impact the candidates' campaigns. About 65% of respondents believe the investigation into Lulinha, Lula's son, harms his campaign. This investigation pertains to an alleged influence peddling in federal agencies. Conversely, 64% consider that the investigations related to the film Dark Horse harm Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign.

Regarding the effects of the investigations, one-third of respondents (40%) believe the Lulinha case significantly affects Lula's candidacy, while 42% think the Dark Horse case causes substantial damage to Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign.

The survey was commissioned by the newspaper O Globo and TV Globo, with the results presented at an event on Wednesday. The voting intentions indicated are an important reference for electoral campaign strategies as the election date approaches.

The information on voting intentions and public opinion reflects the current climate in the political landscape and the issues that could influence voters' decisions in the upcoming elections.