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Datafolha and RealTime Big Data release final polls before runoff vote

Research institutes publish surveys on the presidential race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro days before the second-round election.

24 October 2026Tagblick Newsdesk

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Archive photo: Datafolha and RealTime Big Data release final polls before runoff vote — Archive photoPhoto: Senado Federal · Wikimedia Commons · CC BY 2.0

The Datafolha Institute released a new voter intention survey for the second round of the presidential election, commissioned by Globo and Folha de S.Paulo. According to the institute, Flávio Bolsonaro appears in a technical tie with Lula. The margin of error is two percentage points either way, with a 95% confidence level.

In parallel, RealTime Big Data released a survey showing Flávio Bolsonaro numerically ahead of Lula in the second-round presidential race. The RealTime Big Data survey presents percentages in different breakdowns, including valid votes, total votes, and rejection rates.

Surveys released in recent days show tight scenarios for the second round of the presidential race. Polls published between October 21 and 23 present different angles on the competition between the two candidates.

In addition to the voter intention survey, Datafolha released a propensity-to-vote model for the second round of the presidential election. This model aims to refine the picture of the electoral landscape, measuring not only the voter's stated preference but also their likelihood of casting a ballot on Sunday.

The programme "A Hora da Pesquisa" analysed live Datafolha's penultimate poll before the second round, beginning at 7 p.m.

The presidential race involves candidates from two parties: Lula for the Workers' Party and Flávio Bolsonaro for the Liberal Party.

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