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Sunday, 25 October 2026

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Polls show tight races on eve of runoff election

Survey institutes release final polls before the runoff, showing Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro technically tied in the presidential election.

Archive photo: Polls show tight races on eve of runoff election
Archive photoPhoto: Prefeitura do Rio de Janeiro · Wikimedia Commons · CC BY 3.0 br

Multiple polling institutes released surveys on Saturday (24) about the presidential runoff election. CNT/MDA presented a tight contest between senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party (PL) and president Lula of the Workers' Party (PT) on the eve of the runoff.

The Datafolha survey, commissioned by Globo and Folha de S.Paulo, showed Flávio Bolsonaro at 51% of valid votes and Lula at 49%, constituting a technical tie. The margin of error was two percentage points plus or minus, with a confidence level of 95%.

Quaest, a survey commissioned by Globo and O Globo, also recorded Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula technically tied, with the PL candidate at 51% and the PT candidate at 49%, within the same margin of error of two percentage points and confidence level of 95%. The BTG/Nexus survey released today also showed a tight race between the two candidates within its margin of error of 2.2 percentage points.

Archive photo: Polls show tight races on eve of runoff election
Archive photoPhoto: Senado Federal · Flickr · BY

Beyond the presidential election, surveys were released for state races. In the Federal District, both Datafolha and Quaest indicated that Celina Leão of the Progressive Party (PP) leads voting intentions for governor on the eve of the runoff, with a margin of error of two percentage points in both surveys.

In Amazonas, according to Quaest commissioned by Rede Amazônica, Omar Aziz of the Social Democratic Party (PSD) led the race against Maria do Carmo of the PL with 55% of voting intentions. In Tocantins, Vicentinho Júnior of the Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB) appeared ahead with 51% of intentions, while in Espírito Santo, Lorenzo Pazolini of the Republicans led voting intentions, according to Quaest surveys released Saturday.

In Acre, the Quaest survey commissioned by Rede Amazônica indicated Mailza Assis of the Progressistas leading the race for state governor with 51% of voting intentions. All these surveys presented margins of error of two percentage points plus or minus.

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