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Updates on Polls for the 2026 Elections in Brazil

Various polls released in recent days outline the scenarios for the first round of the 2026 elections for governors and presidency across different states.

4 October 2026Tagblick Newsdesk

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Updates on Polls for the 2026 Elections in Brazil — Photo: OQEMS · Wikimedia Commons · CC0

Between September 29 and October 3, several polls were released regarding voter intentions for the 2026 elections, including scenarios for governor in the states of Rio de Janeiro, Federal District, and Paraná, as well as for the presidency.

In Rio de Janeiro, the polls indicate a tight contest between Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) and Lula (PT). According to a survey by Datafolha, Flávio has 48% of valid votes, while Lula sits at 40%.

In the Federal District, three polls also update the figures for the first round, although specific details about voter intentions haven't been disclosed at this moment.

Archive photo: Updates on Polls for the 2026 Elections in Brazil — Archive photoPhoto: Tribunal Superior Eleitoral do Brasil (TSE) · Wikimedia Commons · CC BY 4.0

In Paraná, the polls suggest a competition among several candidates, with the electorate preparing to decide next Sunday (4) who will be the new governor. The voting intentions in Paraná have been revised by various institutes in recent days.

Regarding the presidential race, polls show Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula in a technical tie. A survey by Palver indicates Flávio with 47% against Lula's 43% in the first round, while Datafolha shows Lula at 45% and Flávio at 42%.

The eve of the first round reveals a heated contest. In São Paulo, Datafolha also indicated that Flávio leads with 45%, while Lula follows with 39%. Second-round simulations reflect this closeness between the two candidates, with Flávio and Lula in a tight race. Surveys from Quaest and Datafolha reinforce the picture of an election with uncertain outcomes.

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